Category Archives: NFL

The Evolution of the NFL Cornerback

By Ryan Lack

Much has been written about the evolution of football and certain positions. These changes in some respects have been forced (e.g. player safety) and some of it has simply been a result of the modern athlete getting bigger, stronger, and faster over time.

One position that never seems to get much pub as a very crucial one on the field is cornerback. It’s a passing league now and the cornerback position may be the single most important one on any defense, and increasingly the hardest to play. But while wide receivers are getting bigger and faster, the corners have stayed the same size, mostly. The position itself needs to change now. Due to numerous rule changes that mainly serve to protect wide receivers, league cornerbacks are now forced to treat wideouts like they would a girl on a first date – they can’t touch them and can barely look at them witout drawing flags. To accommodate this favoritism the make-up of corners needs to evolve.

The solution is pretty straight-forward, right? Just go after bigger corners to match-up against these bigger receivers. As simple as that sounds it’s much more difficult to turn into reality.

The main challenge in this growth of such an important position is a lack of agility and speed the bigger the player gets. The average cornerback in the NFL is 5’11”, 195lbs. That’s not very big but these guys are typically some of the fastest players on their teams. So, what they lack in size they make-up for in speed; however, a speed advantage is only as valuable as your ball skills, and lacking height hurts.

“Out of the 169 cornerbacks who were on NFL rosters as of last Tuesday (September 2012), only 53 of them were 6-0 or taller.” – National Football Post

Being sub-six-feet tall going up against someone like a Calvin Johnson at 6’5″, 240lbs. isn’t what you’d call a favorable match-up. To expect the average cornerback to defend him well isn’t realistic and this has played out on the field with Johnson becoming an absolute superstar in the last few years. Now granted, they don’t call him Megatron for nothing – the guy is a freak – but more and more the size discrepancy is what is really hurting pass defenses. You can’t double-team everyone all the time.

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of 6’3″+, 215lbs. players aren’t being steered toward being cover corners. If they’re choosing defense over the glitz and big money of offense they’re either a hard-hitting safety that can’t cover or … well, not on defense at all. Especially at that size and bigger, the players lack the agility and speed, mostly the agility, to cover to the degree that is needed. These bigger guys can’t turn their hips in coverage as quickly as they need to the bigger they are, which is why there are so few of them that are successful in the corner spot.

It’s much the same as what we’re seeing with the quarterback position – Cam Newton, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, and even Vick as one of the first ones, are getting faster, smarter (not always), and developing stronger, more accurate arms. This has been discussed and covered by the media at great length during this year’s playoffs, yet it’s astonishing they haven’t yet taken a closer look at how evolving other positions could be changing the game. Instead, the quarterback infatuation has continued, but with the injury suffered by RGIII perhaps the evolution of the quarterback isn’t as wide spread and, more importantly, smart as the media would like us to believe.

The Seahawks seem to be the only team developing bigger, faster, stronger corners and it’s a model more teams need to adopt instead of focusing so much on how mobile their quarterback is or could be. Yes, it’s difficult to find players in this mold that still have all of the key features of a good corner but they are out there. It really just comes down to the team making a commitment to addressing it in the right way.

The two Seahawk corners here are Richard Sherman (6’3″) and Brandon Browner (6’4″). This isn’t to say that just because they’re big they will be more successful, but I sure do like my chances better with two young and tall corners back there covering the two best pass-catching threats the other team has than someone that’s 5’11”. Teams will say it’s hard to find these big guys but Seattle did it through the draft, not free agency. It’s further proof that the modern NFL player is evolving. Even as they change it’s still on the teams to apply these big bodies in the appropriate spots and in the right schemes.

Surely, entering this season no one thought we’d be pointing to the Seahawks as a blueprint for how to do anything right (Screw you, Pete) but here we are. The bigger corner may not be feasible for every team in the league given there are so few but if more teams aren’t looking at how to get bigger at the position they’re going to get left behind.

We have the pleasure of seeing this theory in motion this weekend as the Seahawks take on the Falcons in the divisional round of the playoffs. This game will pit Sherman and Browner against arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the game in Julio Jones and Roddy White, two fast, agile big bodied receivers that pose a threat to opposing defenses whenever they step on the field. These match-ups will certainly pose a huge challenge for the two cornerbacks and it’s something we’re all looking forward to watching. It may prove out to be the truest test these two corners have been faced with this season, and how they perform can and most certainly should set the tone for how the position is viewed and cultivated across the league for years to come.

Follow Ryan on Twitter at @ryanlack

Preview and Analysis: Packers vs. 49ers, Round 2

By Kevin York

<The introduction to this preview was published on January 8, 2013. To read it, you can visit this link.>

Here it is. I said yesterday that I would break one of my own sports superstitions to write this analysis and I’ll keep my word. You’ll see that there actually isn’t much trash talk in this post, but as I mentioned, my superstition is even weirder since it includes any criticism of the opposing team as part of it. I’ve just always preferred to do my talking after the Packers win a game instead of during the lead up.

So without further discussion of my odd Packer support preferences, here’s my preview and analysis to this weekend’s Packers vs. 49ers divisional playoff game.

Packers offense
Overview: Green Bay has struggled with consistency all year on offense, partially due to injuries. They finally seem to have everyone healthy (Jordy Nelson has said he will play this weekend), which is very important for them. The offense is lethal with all its weapons and can be extremely difficult to defend.

— In week one, Green Bay seemed to go against its bread and butter, the passing game, in favor of establishing the run. In this second game, they shouldn’t even attempt to establish the run early on. This year has shown that the 49ers secondary is pretty suspect. That unit received a lot of credit last year and I said the entire year that it was overrated. People are finally listening to me now. Rodgers and company need to attack the secondary hard. Carlos Rogers isn’t capable of man coverage against speedy receivers like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. Green Bay needs to try and put him on an island. Conversely, the San Francisco corner opposite Rogers, Tarell Brown, isn’t any better. I was watching the Niners-Pats game with Ryan, a big time Niners fan. It was a Sunday Night NBC game so in introducing the defense they let the player introduce himself with the talking headshot. Ryan didn’t even know Brown, who was representing the Niners in classy fashion wearing a beanie pulled low over his eyes. “Who is that? Did they pick this guy up on the way to the game?”

Dashon Goldson, the San Francisco free safety, plays more like a hard hitting linebacker, not a guy capable of independent pass coverage against a spread look. Pure and simple, I think he’s a headhunter. The strong safety, Donte Whitner, was shunned by Buffalo before San Francisco picked him up. There’s probably a reason for that. In Buffalo you need to defend the high powered pass attack from Tom Brady and company to compete in that division. He didn’t help, so they let him walk. Last year, when Whitner got a lot of credit for his improved play, he was playing against weak quarterbacks in the NFC West. This year, he’s had to contend with Russell Wilson and a healthy Sam Bradford. What teams did San Francisco struggle with this year? That would be Seattle and St. Louis along with New England and the New York Giants (Eli Manning)… Spreading the field and forcing the Niners into man coverage against four, or even five, receivers will make for a difficult night for their secondary.

— Once the passing game is established, THEN Green Bay can use its newfound running attack. The pass will open up the run. I really like Green Bay’s new running back, DaJuan Harris. As Cris Collinsworth stated over and over and over in the playoff game against Minnesota, he likes the energy Harris brings. I do too, but more importantly, I like the decisiveness. Too many backs in the league want to dance left and right and even backwards indecisively waiting for a hole to open. It’s like watching a kid in a candy store not sure which one candy bar to pick. Harris makes a decision and proceeds with a full head of steam.

— Screen passes have worked well for Green Bay over the past few weeks and will be needed against a hard charging pass rushing team like San Francisco. Aldon Smith is a pass rushing specialist and this is a way to use that against him, especially with how well the Packer receivers have been blocking.

49ers Offense
Overview: San Francisco’s offense has evolved quite a bit this year, especially after making the move to Colin Kaepernick (a move that I think will still come back to haunt them…). He brings a different element to their offense. Everyone seems to think it’s downfield passing. [It’s not, it’s bad decisions, as he showed against Seattle. Ok, this isn’t really part of the analysis. Sorry, but I had to squeeze that in…] That’s certainly part of it, but I think the more appealing aspect (not for me, but for San Francisco fans) is his running ability, which can put a lot of stress on a defense.

— Green Bay showed against Minnesota that it can stop the run, but that was against a running back. I think they will contain Frank Gore on traditional run plays, but containing Kaepernick on read options and non-traditional run plays is another thing. A quarterback like Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III makes it difficult for a defense to contain the pocket. The read option play makes it even more difficult because you essentially need two defenders focused on containment – one on the quarterback and one on the running back. That takes away two pass rushers, so when San Francisco runs the option with a pass as one of the options, it sees success and also forces the defense to stay honest with the pass rush. Run some planned quarterback run plays so that Kaepernick can get comfortable. Don’t forget, he’s young and this is his first playoff game. Although it’s at home, it’s still a different feel and a different kind of pressure than he’s faced yet.

— San Francisco should move the pocket on Green Bay. Kaepernick has a lot of scrambling ability and Green Bay’s interior defensive lineman aren’t particularly fast. Moving the pocket away from Clay Matthews and forcing him to try and chase Kaepernick down from behind scares me.

Packers Defense
Overview: Green Bay shocked me by showing against Minnesota that defensive coordinator Dom Capers can actually develop a game plan to stop a team. He hasn’t shown it all season long. Of course it helped that Joe Webb was playing instead of Christian Ponder. I’m sure Mark never thought he’d be wishing Ponder was under center. The Packers looked good, but let’s remember that Minnesota was forced to be one dimensional on offense. Joe Webb looked astonishingly awful and the Vikings never even ran any plays that catered to his strengths after the first drive. They may have been better picking someone out of the stands to play quarterback.

— As with their defense of Peterson, they’ll need to be patient in defending Kaepernick and stick to the plan. I think using the same pocket containment they used against Peterson could work with San Francisco. Kaepernick likes to take off on outside runs, force him to stay inside and run into the beef of Green Bay’s defense – B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett. Try and move the pocket with San Francisco as it moves it (and Niners will definitely do that, they’ve done it all year). Kaepernick looked utterly confused when Seattle forced him into staying in the pocket more and he made some mistakes. Look at Seattle’s game plan and copy it. Kaepernick is young and inexperienced. He can be forced into mental mistakes.

— The Green Bay secondary is pretty good against the pass. Tramon Williams and Casey Hayward are solid in coverage, but the defensive front needs to apply enough ‘smart’ pressure to not put the secondary in situations where they’re stuck in coverage too long. I say smart pressure because Kaepernick wants to feel a pass rush because it makes it ok for him to leave the pocket and scramble. He wants a reason to run. The Packers will need to rush him differently than they do a Jay Cutler or Matt Stafford. Kaepernick has an ability to extend plays and that would put the Packers corners, good as they are, in a difficult situation.

49ers Defense
Overview: We saw some weaknesses from this defense this year. Everyone raved about them last year and I questioned their depth. This year we discovered they aren’t really that deep. They should be back to near full strength for this game, but even a healthy squad could have the deficits they’ve shown this year exploited by a powerful Green Bay offense.

— The key is Justin Smith. All the accolades went to Aldon Smith this year since he started the season hot and appeared on his way to breaking the single season sack record. He didn’t end up breaking the record, but still received plenty of talk about being a defensive player of the year candidate. I didn’t think it was warranted and he didn’t receive my vote. In fact, he didn’t even receive a second or third place vote from me. Why? Because he wasn’t even the best defender on his own team. In the last three games of the season, when Justin Smith was hurt, Aldon recorded exactly zero sacks. The key to his success is his teammate, Justin. Aldon is a pass rusher, that’s it. He’s not very astute against the run and it makes him an incomplete defensive player. Now that he has Justin back, he should be back to applying more pressure, which could give Green Bay issues. The Niners just need to hope that Justin is healthy enough to help.

Green Bay’s offensive line has gotten a lot of criticism for the sacks its given up, but I don’t think they’re as bad of a unit as people have painted them. Since benching Jeff Saturday at center in favor of Evan Dietrich-Smith, the unit has played at a much improved level. They did an adequate job against Minnesota, a solid defensive front, but the Vikings don’t have the same firepower as San Francisco. The Niners will have to test rookie tackle Don Barclay and his counterpart on the other side of the line, Marshall Newhouse. The outside rush will be key for them because it will force Green Bay to keep a running back, probably fullback John Kuhn, in the backfield to help block instead of using that position outside to line up as another receiver. The interior of the Packers line – Dietrich-Smith and guards T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton are pretty strong, so focus on the outside rush. The pass rush will help the Niner secondary that may struggle with Green Bay’s fast receivers.

— Given Green Bay’s passing strength, San Francisco will be forced to be timely and picky with when it blitzes inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. Those two could be forced to stay home and help in pass defense. They’re much more needed there than helping with pass rushing by blitzing. Aaron Rodgers is very good at picking apart blitzes. Leaving Bowman and Willis home will also help the Niner secondary by allowing them to play zone pass coverage instead of leaving their corners and safeties on islands defending in man coverage. I think San Francisco would be better off playing zone coverage against the Packers. They did this in week one.

— San Francisco takes a lot of pride in stopping the run. I think they need to come in with a game plan to stop the pass against Green Bay though, even if it means allowing rushing yards. The Packers won’t beat the Niners by rushing the ball, but they could take them apart by throwing the ball. San Francisco loves to play one safety up, the other back, meaning one safety in the box to stop the run, the other back in pass coverage. I don’t think they can do that against the Green Bay receivers, they’ll need to leave both back, which is exactly what they did in week one. That worked then, but keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers was playing extremely stubborn in that first meeting, insisting on trying to beat the San Francisco coverage deep. He’s proven over the season that he’s not as headstrong in his approach by checking down to receivers and letting the long ball open up itself. Nonetheless, the best way to defend him is with that two back safety approach. You don’t want to get beat deep by Rodgers and his fast receivers.

Green Bay Special Teams
Green Bay is ok with returning punts and kicks, with Randall Cobb and Jeremy Ross performing well, but it’s been an adventure with Mason Crosby kicking field goals this season. He’s been better over the past three games, but they haven’t put him in a situation where he could fail very big. It’s a very “kid gloves” approach and they’ll have to continue this tentative strategy against San Francisco.

San Francisco Special Teams
If there’s a kicker that struggled more than Mason Crosby this year, it was San Francisco’s David Akers. He’s looked atrocious at times, so much so that the 49ers signed free agent kicker Billy Cundiff last week. Of course, Cundiff was cut by the Ravens in favor of a rookie, so is he going to be better? Who knows, but at this point it can’t hurt to look. San Francisco’s returners, namely Ted Ginn and Kyle Williams, have made some mental mistakes, at times extremely large ones, in the return game over the past two years. I think their best bet is using LaMichael James to return punts and kicks. They started doing this more and more toward the end of the year and the rookie showed he can handle the responsibility.

So, that’s my analysis. I don’t think I even included too much trash talk in there, although I was sure to fit in several slights (Colin Kaepernick, Aldon Smith, the entire San Francisco secondary). I just couldn’t help myself once I got going. I’m sure this week will include plenty of trash talk between me and San Francisco fans, especially here at The Couchletes. Poor Mark will feel all left out. Better luck next year, buddy.

Now that I’ve got this analysis published, and I broke my superstition of not trash talking or criticizing my friend’s teams before they play Green Bay, I can spend the rest of the week debating my other sports superstitions I mentioned yesterday, my ban on wearing Packer jerseys on big game days. Do I tempt fate? On Saturday night I actually didn’t even wear a Packers shirt while watching the Minnesota game. Laundry kind of piled up on us and I realized all eight of the non-jersey Packers shirts I own were dirty. So I wore a Packers ballcap and a regular, non-Packer sweater. My Packers shirts all got washed on Sunday, but so did that sweater. Maybe I just wear that and my Green Bay cap again…

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york

Yes, I Will Write a Packers-Niners Preview (A Preview to my Preview)

By Kevin York

<You can read the second part of this post, the actual preview, here.>

Packers against Niners. The sequel. This time in San Francisco. I remember the first matchup in week one very well. It took place at Lambeau in a game that San Francisco won 30-22, a score that wasn’t at all indicative of how the two teams performed. The Packers looked absolutely horrible while the Niners looked much like they hadn’t lost a step from where they ended the season last year, a narrow loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game. Going into that first game I was skeptical, yet optimistic. I thought the Packers offense would still be the great machine that it was in 2011 when it rolled over teams on the way to a 15-1 record. The defense on the other hand, that’s where the skepticism came in. That unit was nothing special in 2011, in fact it was actually downright bad. Like worst in the NFL bad. The Packers used their 2012 draft to address it though, adding young talents like Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Casey Hayward. I mean, they couldn’t be worse than they were in 2011, could they?

I came away from week one thinking that they may indeed be worse than the previous year. I didn’t expect the San Francisco offense to be anything special. It was the weak aspect of that solid San Francisco team in 2011, yet against Green Bay, the Alex Smith-led unit seemed to be able to do whatever it wanted. The game left me wondering if this Green Bay team would even be able to win the NFC North and if I’d have to endure endless narrative over the next five months here in San Francisco not only about the Niners beating the Packers, but about how they’re historic, unstoppable and Super Bowl bound. Yes, I was already hearing comments along those lines the day after the game and not just from regular fans, but from the meatballs on local sports radio around here. Yes, they really are that bad.

I also remember that week one matchup well because I watched the game with Hoa and Rahul, who are both, of course, 49er fans. They weren’t shy about rubbing the final score in, especially Rahul, who decided to take it a step further by writing a special post to me that scratched even deeper at my fresh wound. I tend to fly off the hook a bit when it comes to the Packers and retaliated almost immediately with a response.

After the Packers jumped to a big lead on the Vikings Saturday night and it slowly became more and more inevitable that the following weekend would produce a rematch of that week one confrontation, I began to consider writing a post analyzing the matchup. I was already forming tons of opinions in my head about the various strengths and weaknesses of the 49ers and where Green Bay could exploit its advantages and hide its weaknesses. I initially dismissed the idea though. See, I have this sort of rule that I follow. A weird one… I try not to talk trash in the week leading up to a game where my Packers are playing a team that friends support. I take it so far that I shy away from even making comments about their opponent, even simple things like, “Your offensive line is a mess of injuries right now, you’re going to have a real hard time defending Clay Matthews.” It sounds ridiculous, I know. After all, that’s what friends do to each other. They talk trash about their sports teams. I’ve done it before. That instance was not leading up to a Green Bay showdown though and that’s exactly why I try not to do it before a big game. As you may have sensed from my retaliation to Rahul’s Dear Kevin post, I have a hard time dealing with the reciprocating trash talk that comes my way afterward, if the Packers happen to lose one of these games. Directly after a loss I have nothing left to combat the jabs with other than stupid responses like, “If they had done what I said, we wouldn’t have lost! They didn’t have a good game plan!” So you know better than the coaching staff, huh, Kevin?

Is a game preview involving my team really trash talk though? This is a professional sports site, isn’t it? I just give my perspective and analyze both teams. Right? Actually, no. First, this isn’t a professional sports site. It’s five guys who like sports giving their opinions, three of whom are Niner fans and one who cheers for the just disposed-of-by-my-Packers Vikings. We give each other crap, a lot of it at times. With me writing this preview, it would end up containing some jabs, especially since it’s a preview involving my team playing the team that I absolutely hate, the San Francisco 49ers. So you see, professional is something we probably can’t be considered. After all, there’s not much in our backgrounds that prove we actually know what we’re talking about. We just like sports and like to give our opinions. We’re regular guys with no sports experience, just like Skip Bayless, Mike Greenberg, Tony Reali, Jemelle Hill, Israel Gutierrez, Dan Le Batard… Hey wait, those people actually are professionals who are paid for their bad opinions, so maybe…

Weird sports superstitions are hard to let go of. I have a green home AJ Hawk Packers jersey (yes, it’s an odd selection of a jersey for a big Packers fan. I bought it his rookie year. I liked his Big Ten pedigree and his toughness. I thought that he was going to be a really good player. Truth be told, I also liked his hair. When he cut it this past offseason, part of me died, although he has played better this year with short hair. Oh well, I’ve still got Clay Matthews…) and a white Aaron Rodgers roadie. I love both of them, but I can’t wear either one for a big game. The team doesn’t play well when I wear one. Actually, that’s an understatement. They lose, plain and simple. The lone exception is when I tempted fate and wore the Hawk jersey for Super Bowl XLV and the Packers beat the Steelers. When I wore it the next year it had lost its luck and still hasn’t regained it. In fact, I wore that exact jersey in week one.

After some thought, I decided that it’s ok to write this preview. It’s time for me to outgrow my weird superstition. So tomorrow, watch for my preview and analysis of the Packers – 49ers divisional round game. To use the words of Mark, you can consider this a preview to my preview. Who knows, if this goes well maybe I’ll even break out of my jersey superstition.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york

NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round: The Couchletes Pick ‘Em

Well, that’s it, folks. The regular season is over and the NFL Playoffs are upon us! It’s a bittersweet moment for all of us Couchletes. Given our love for the game it’s hard to see the season begin to fade into the sunset, but we are pretty excited to see what this year’s playoffs yield.

As far as our pick ’em league is concerned, Ryan was, in a word, dominant. His frequency of writing and posting may have been inconsistent but his picks sure weren’t. Congratulations, Ryan. I believe you are the lucky winner of some Kevin beard hair and a fist pound.

Here are the final regular season pick ’em standings:

1. Ryan – 157-66 (70% success rate)
2. Rahul – 136-87 (61% success rate)
3. Kevin – 135-88 (60% success rate)
4. Mark – 129-94 (58% success rate)
5. Hoa – 116-107 (52% success rate)

Match-up Kevin Ryan Rahul Hoa Mark
@HOU vs. CIN HOU HOU HOU
@GB vs. MIN GB GB GB
@BAL vs. IND BAL BAL BAL
SEA vs. @WAS SEA SEA WAS

Year End NFL Awards Preview

By Kevin York

The 2012 season isn’t yet over, but we’re already looking ahead to some of the annual festivities that come after all sixteen regular season games have been played. Yesterday we analyzed next year’s fate for all 32 head coaches. Today we’re previewing the major end of season awards – MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year; but we’re going to approach it slightly different than we’ve seen in the past. We’ll go division by division, highlighting players in each division that could be considered for these awards.

Keep in mind, this preview is not recognizing any official award winners (we’ll hand out The Couchletes awards after the regular season), just discussing who should be considered. In fact, I’m doing this completely in a vacuum without discussing it with my fellow Couchletes experts, so it’s possible, though not likely, that people could win our awards that I don’t even discuss here.

AFC East

Photo Credit: (Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Jim Rogash/Getty Images)


MVP:
Tom Brady has had another excellent year for the Patriots and in a weak division, there’s really no one else worthy of considering here. If I were forced to give another candidate, I would probably say Brady’s teammate Wes Welker, although I don’t expect him to get any attention in the league-wide vote.
Offensive Player of the Year:
Again, Tom Brady. And again, if forced to give another name, I’d say Welker. And the same as with the MVP talk, Welker will get no love in the real vote.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Miami defensive end Cameron Wake has had a nice season. Cases could be made for New England’s Vince Wilfork or Jerod Mayo, Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd and the New York Jets Antonio Cromartie, but we likely won’t see many, if any, votes for AFC East players in the final vote.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Ryan Tannehill by default. No one else has really stood out offensively and Tannehill has led Miami to a respectable finish in his first year under center.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Chandler Jones of New England has had a solid season even though he missed a little time to injury. I think he’s stood out the most of all defensive rookies in the division.
Coach of the Year:
This comes down to Bill Belichik and Joe Philbin, both of whom will likely receive votes for league coach of the year. For me with coach of the year, it comes down to who exceeded expectations so I would have to give the slight edge to Philbin.

AFC North

Photo Credit: Amy Sancetta/AP

Photo Credit: (Amy Sancetta/AP)


MVP:
Ray Rice has stood out the most. The Ravens don’t really have much of an offense outside of Rice (remember that 30 yard fourth down conversion Rice gained?), which makes it all the more baffling during those periods when coach John Harbaugh neglects the run, so it’s a testament to Rice that the Ravens offense has performed as well as it has.
Offensive Player of the Year:
I have to go with Rice again. He’s stood out more than any other offensive player in the division this year.
Defensive Player of the Year:
This is a crowded division for this honor. Browns linebacker D’Qwell Jackson and cornerback Joe Haden, Bengals DT Geno Atkins, Steelers linebacker Lawrence Timmons and Ravens DT Haloti Ngata all deserve consideration. Ultimately, I think it comes down to Jackson and Atkins. Both the Browns and Bengals have had good defensive units on the field this year, much improved from what we saw last year, and they were led by these two men, respectively. I give a slight edge to Atkins because his impact has extended beyond instances where he’s made the play to situations where his presence has allowed others to make plays.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
All the Rookie of the Year talk has been around Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, and amidst this good quarterback play, Browns running back Trent Richardson has really been overshadowed. Richardson has been the rock of a Browns offensive that doesn’t have a great passing game, meaning defenses can load up the box to shut down Richardson. Yet many defenses haven’t been able to do that. The other person that deserves mention is Baltimore kicker (yes, kicker) Justin Tucker.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Vontaze Burfict, the undrafted free agent Bengal linebacker out of Arizona State has had surprising impact on the Cincinnati defense. In the AFC North, he’s performed better than any other rookie on the defensive side of the ball.
Coach of the Year:
The Bengals Marvin Lewis has again put Cincinnati in the thick of the playoff race, with a chance to win the AFC North. His coaching has exceeded that of his AFC North counterparts in Pittsburgh and Baltimore as Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh’s teams have struggled a bit (at least for them). Cleveland’s Pat Shurmur has done a nice job, but not quite as nice as Lewis.

AFC South

Photo Credit: (Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Getty Images)


MVP:
Andrew Luck has helped to significantly change the culture of the Colts from what we saw last year and is largely the reason the Colts are in a place to make the playoffs. He’s had more impact on his team than anyone else in this division.
Offensive Player of the Year:
A strong case could also be made for Luck in this category, but I have to give the nod to Arian Foster. While Luck has played exceptionally, he’s also made a few mistakes along the way (to be expected since he was handed the Colts full offense on day one, by a team that has no running game; Luck IS the offense); Houston’s Foster hasn’t had those type of mistakes and has been one of the best running backs in the league.
Defensive Player of the Year:
J.J. Watt is an absolute monster. He’s redefined the way defensive lineman will play and is equally outstanding against the pass and run. Watt is one of the favorites for league Defensive Player of the Year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Andrew Luck is the top offensive rookie in this division, hands down.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Weak class for this division so I’m actually inclined not to name a winner. I’d love to hear thoughts if someone feels passionately about one of the rookies in this division.
Coach of the Year:
Gary Kubiak has done a nice job in Houston this season, but the Indianapolis duo of Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians could take the league Coach of the Year award for what they’ve managed to do with a young Colts team.

AFC West

Photo Credit: (David Zalubowski/AP)

Photo Credit: (David Zalubowski/AP)


MVP:
What Peyton Manning has done this year after major surgery is remarkable. The Broncos had a good team last year, but Manning has really pushed them over the hump with is leadership and offensive ability. No one else in this division really even enters the conversation with the Denver quarterback.
Offensive Player of the Year:
Jamaal Charles really was the only source of offense for the Chiefs this year, yet teams still couldn’t stop him. While Manning had a great year, in terms of pure offense, I think Charles was better.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Denver’s Von Miller was the best linebacker in the league this year, a force against the run and the pass. He will likely finish in the top three, maybe top two, when the league hands out its DPoY award after the season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
I don’t think I can name anyone here. None of the division’s offensive rookies have done enough to warrant a mention.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Another division with a weak class here, but San Diego’s Melvin Ingram has done just enough to get mentioned here.
Coach of the Year:
John Fox has had a good year, but also gets this honor by default since his three counterparts in this division all could find themselves on the hot seat after the season.

NFC East

Photo Credit:(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Photo Credit:(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)


MVP:
Robert Griffin III has impressed everyone in his rookie season and led an outstanding turnaround in the nation’s capital. No one else in the division nears the impact he’s delivered.
Offensive Player of the Year:
In a year in which the Giants offense has struggled with injuries, the Cowboys have struggled with consistency and the Eagles have been downright atrocious, this comes down to two rookies – RG3 and his teammate Alfred Morris. I give the slight edge to Griffin.
Defensive Player of the Year:
There are a lot of big defensive names in this division, from Demarcus Ware to Justin Tuck to Justin Pierre-Paul, but none have had truly standout seasons.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
See Offensive Player of the Year. Griffin over Morris by a hair, giving RG3 three nods in the NFC East.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
I guess Dallas’ Morris Claiborne, although he hasn’t played quite as well as many expected.
Coach of the Year:
Mike Shanahan finally got his quarterback and now he seems to have the Redskins headed in the right direction.

NFC North

Photo Credit: (Brian Peterson/MCT)

Photo Credit: (Brian Peterson/MCT)


MVP:
This comes down to Adrian Peterson and Aaron Rodgers. I can make cases for both, but ultimately look at Minnesota and realize that without Peterson, they could be in line for a top three draft pick. With him, they’re on the verge of the playoffs. If Rodgers was taken away from the Packers, they still have the talent to be around .500.
Offensive Player of the Year:
This division is loaded. Peterson, Rodgers, Chicago’s Brandon Marshall and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson. These four could possibly be the top four vote getters when this award is decided. When I cast my vote for the Couchletes Offensive Player of the Year, I’ll have Peterson, Johnson and Marshall as 1-2-3.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Chicago Bears teammates Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman could both make an impact in the league wide voting for this award. I give a slight nod to Jennings for his consistency throughout the year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
The rookie on the offensive side of the ball who sticks out is Minnesota tight end Kyle Rudolph, but while he’s had some real standout games, he’s also had some where he made little impact. The rookie has struggled with consistency. Unfortunately, no one else really comes to mind in this division.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Green Bay cornerback Casey Hayward may actually win this award and no one in the NFC North comes close to his performance on the year.
Coach of the Year:
The Packers’ Mike McCarthy did an astute job guiding the team through a rough start to the year to a second straight division win.

NFC South

Photo Credit: (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

Photo Credit: (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)


MVP:
Matt Ryan started the year hot, as a top three quarterback, and although he cooled off toward the end of the season, still stood out as most valuable player in this division.
Offensive Player of the Year:
Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin had an outstanding season, emerging as a top rushing threat in the entire league and standing out in a down year for other big offensive weapons in the division such as Drew Brees and Cam Newton.
Defensive Player of the Year:
This division’s top defensive player could be Panther rookie Luke Kuechly. He stood out to me more than any other defender in this division.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
See Offensive Player of the Year.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
See Defensive Player of the Year. Tampa rookies Mark Barron and Lavonte David should also get recognized for their performance this year as well though.
Coach of the Year:
Greg Schiano made a big impact on not only his team, but the league this year (remember his refusal to allow teams to down the ball when leading and trying to run out the clock?), but Mike Smith of the Falcons stood out a little more than the Tampa rookie coach.

NFC West

Photo Credit: (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)


MVP:
Seattle rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, while not putting up outstanding numbers, has had tremendous impact. There are those, including some of my Couchletes colleagues, that I know would try to argue San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick would warrant consideration. To them I say, you’re crazy. Wilson’s resume is better and he’s had more impact on that team than Kaepernick has had on an already top tier 49er unit.
Offensive Player of the Year:
Marshawn Lynch has more rushing yards and more touchdowns than San Francisco’s Frank Gore and receives the nod from me, although both have had strong seasons.
Defensive Player of the Year:
San Francisco’s Aldon Smith is within reach of Michael Strahan’s single season sack record (currently tied with Houston’s J.J. Watt) and will warrant discussion in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, but I question if his teammate Justin Smith has had more impact.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Wilson. No one else comes close.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Rams cornerback Janoris Jenkins has had a great season, silencing many of the critics who raised questions about him during the draft process. While he’s tops, Seattle has also had several rookies provide immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball, with middle linebacker Bobby Wilson leading the way.
Coach of the Year:
Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll both warrant consideration, but as I stated in my choice for AFC East coach of the year, expectations play a large part in my determination. Everyone knew San Francisco would be good this year, not many expected Seattle to be this good.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york

Keep ’em or Can ’em?: Winding up the NFL coaching carousel

By Kevin York

As the NFL season begins its final stretch, an annual league tradition is simultaneously starting again – the rumor mill surrounding the fates of NFL head coaches. Every year at this time a debate ensues about what struggling franchises should do to try and reverse their fortunes for the next year and much nearly all of that debate focuses on the man leading these franchises onto the field every week, the head coach. So in the spirit of this yearly custom, I give you Keep ’em or Can ’em, an early look at what I think upper management and ownership should decide on the future of their respective team’s head coach. At least for next year.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills (Chan Gailey) – Can ’em
Gailey has compiled a 15-31 record in his three seasons in Buffalo, finishing in last place in the AFC East in his first two season and appearing destined for the cellar again. A coach with an offensive background, Gailey has struggled to make the Bills offensive consistent. While somewhat handcuffed by the long term signing of mediocre quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, I don’t think it gives Gailey a pass since he’s had talent around Fitzpatrick, especially at running back. Time for Chan to go.

Miami Dolphins (Joe Philbin) – Keep ’em
The former Packers offensive coordinator has put together a respectable first season with a winnable game left against Buffalo and potentially even at New England, if the Patriots happen to sit starters in preparation for the playoffs. Philbin deserves at least another year to see what he can do.

New England Patriots (Bill Belichik) – Keep ’em
Belichik put together another great season and has compiled a resume that allows him to essentially leave the Patriots on his own terms.

New York Jets (Rex Ryan) – Can ’em
What a rollercoaster. The Jets limped through this season and although somehow had a shot to still make the playoffs until last week’s loss to Tennessee, sorely underperformed on the year. Ryan made some head scratching moves, such as not dressing healthy quarterback Greg McElroy the two weeks following his relief appearance to lead the Jets to a win over Arizona, then giving McElroy the nod over both starter Mark Sanchez and second stringer Tim Tebow against the Chargers in week 16. While Ryan isn’t as bad of a coach as some have made him out to be, I think it’s time for this struggling franchise to start over and rebuild. That means parting ways with Ryan as well as GM Mike Tannenbaum and a number of Jets veterans.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (John Harbaugh) – Keep ’em
Harbaugh and GM Ozzie Newsome have built the Ravens into one of the most consistent franchises in the league. While they could get younger on defense and need to take a close look at their future with quarterback Joe Flacco, those are personnel moves that Harbaugh and Newsome have proven to be more than capable of addressing. No reason to make a coaching change.

Cincinnati Bengals (Marvin Lewis) – Keep ’em
Lewis has put together a nice season with the Bengals, unexpectedly placing them in playoff contention. He’s done a good job with a fairly young team that has overachieved, all things considered. Stick with Lewis, he’s got this team on the right track in a tough, tough division.

Cleveland Browns (Pat Shurmur) – Keep ’em
Six weeks ago I would have said it’s time for Shurmur to go, but after winning five of their last nine, he seems to have altered the course of this team and pointed them in a positive direction. I would be willing to give him another season to see if he can build on what he’s started the latter half of this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Mike Tomlin) – Keep ’em
It’s been a tough, injury plagued year for the Steelers. Tomlin has done a nice job of keeping them in the playoff hunt despite these difficulties, although I think ultimately Pittsburgh will find themselves on the outside looking in. The Rooney’s have built one of the strongest franchises in the league by staying loyal to their head coaches, even in down years. No reason to buck that trend this year and I don’t think they’re even considering it. Keep Tomlin.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (Chuck Pagano) – Keep ’em
Although Pagano hasn’t been able to be as involved in the Colts everyday operations as every other coach on this list, he has had tremendous impact on that team. His battle with cancer was difficult for the team, and Pagano himself, to endure, but they did so remarkably. A lot of credit goes to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who should find himself with a head coaching job next year, but you can’t discredit what Pagano did for this team. He will be back next year and hopefully for years to come.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Mike Mularkey) – Keep ’em
Mularkey’s first season in Jacksonville has been nothing short of a disaster. Only two wins on the year so far and with one of their two remaining contests against New England, it seems that the Jaguars are destined for one of the top three picks in next year’s draft. I’m not one to give up on a coach after one year though, so I think Mularkey should be back next year so we can see if he can get some momentum going in the right direction.

Houston Texans (Gary Kubiak) – Keep ’em
Kubiak finally seemed to have a team that lived up to its ‘on paper’ potential this year. His teams have had a knack for coming up short, but both this year and last year, the Texans have been a top team in the league. Although they suffered difficult blowout losses to Green Bay and New England, Kubiak has done a nice job this year. He deserves another.

Tennessee Titans (Mike Munchak) – Keep ’em
It’s been a year of transition in Tennessee as Jake Locker has become the team’s starter and leader at quarterback. A 9-7 year in 2011 has been followed by a year in which the Titans only have five wins and have been plagued by inconsistency. As I said earlier, I don’t like to bail on coaches too early and I think Munchak deserves one more year; however, in a division that includes powerful Houston and quickly improving Indy, he’ll have the pressure on him next year to win.

AFC West
Denver Broncos (John Fox) – Keep ’em
I have a feeling the Carolina Panthers are wishing they kept Fox. He’s done quite nicely in his first two years in Denver and I think will be there for a while. Definite keep.

Kansas City Chiefs (Romeo Crennel) – Keep ’em
This was a hard one. Crennel has a short body of work with the Chiefs, having only coached three games last year, combined with his two wins in fourteen games this year. It’s been a tough season for Crennel off the field too, witnessing a player kill himself. Looking back at Crennel’s four years in Cleveland as head coach, he had his ups and downs. Two four win seasons, a ten win season and a six win year. Ultimately, I go back to my stance that coaches need some time and I think Crennel fits into that category. I would keep him another year.

Oakland Raiders (Dennis Allen) – Keep ’em
I know many fans in Oakland would like to see Allen gone, saying he hasn’t produced and they can’t even sense the direction the team is headed in. After Hue Jackson mortgaged the franchise to bring in an aging Carson Palmer, the team lost some depth draft, inhibiting rebuilding to a degree, and meaning it could potentially get worse before it gets better. That said, I do have faith in Reggie McKenzie leading the team as GM. Allen was chosen by McKenzie and that’s good enough for me to keep him another year. Raiders fans knew after the disastrous Hue Jackson period that the next couple years would be tough. Be patient.

San Diego Chargers (Norv Turner) – Can ’em
Turner hasn’t been as bad as many have inferred. In fact, I would place more blame for the Chargers downhill slide over the last several years on general manager AJ Smith. Some of the decisions Smith has made have been disastrous and rumors have floated out that many players won’t play in San Diego because of him. So I’d fire both Turner and Smith. Turner is a much better fit as an offensive coordinator. I think this will end his head coaching days.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (Jason Garrett) – Keep ’em
I feel like the Cowboys have underperformed throughout Garrett’s tenure with the team. That said, they’re in playoff contention right now. Garrett has the unenviable task of working for Jerry Jones, a man that think he’s a personnel guy, but who is most definitely not. All things considered, I would give Garrett a ‘C’ grade on his performance so far. Average. Much depends on how Dallas finishes the season in regards to Garrett’s future in Big D. I predict they’ll beat New Orleans then lose to Washington, which would put them at 9-7, a win better than last year. If that happens, and they don’t lose both games, I’d say keep Garrett for another year and then reevaluate.

New York Giants (Tom Coughlin) – Keep ’em
The Giants may not make the playoffs this year, but Coughlin has cemented his status as one of the best in the business. Even if this turns out to be a down year, I would keep him.

Philadelphia Eagles (Andy Reid) – Can ’em
Sometimes teams need to just start over. It doesn’t always mean the coach is bad. Andy Reid is a good coach, but I think it’s time for a change of scenery, both for Reid and for the Philadelphia sideline. He will find himself in a new head coaching job very soon, if he wants one.

Washington Redskins (Mike Shanahan) – Keep ’em
A year ago at this time, I would’ve said Shanahn would find himself out of a job after the 2012 season. Then the Redskins pulled off a huge draft day deal to acquire Robert Griffin III and suddenly the ‘Skins are on the rise and Shanahan is safe. A good quarterback equates to job security for a head coach and I think Shanahan has found his job security for years to come.

NFC North
Chicago Bears (Lovie Smith) – Can ’em
This was the hardest decision on this list. In his nine years at the helm of the Bears, Smith has led Chicago to four winning seasons, three playoff births and a Super Bowl appearance. He’s also had three seasons with 7-9 or 8-8 records. The Bears may make the playoffs this year, but may have to win out to do so. While Smith has made the Bears consistently competitive, I think they need more than that. The Packers are tough and given their youth don’t appear ready to fall off the NFC North podium anytime soon. The Vikings seem to be a team on the rise (if they can find a quarterback) and the Lions have good weapons and should remain competitive (if they can establish some discipline). If the Bears want to make the jump, I think it’s time for a change. Ultimately, I also had to look at the Bears offense. It’s struggled throughout Smith’s time as head coach. Even this year, if you were to take Brandon Marshall out of the mix, that would be a disaster. I question Smith’s ability to identify a coach with the necessary talent to build an offense.

Detroit Lions (Jim Schwartz) – Keep ’em
This was actually a narrow decision to keep Schwartz over can him. The Lions have talent. Their biggest problem right now is team discipline and I question if Schwartz can fix that. It almost seems that his personality feeds into the discipline problems. Since his hiring, the Lions have developed a reputation for being a dirty team. I would give Schwartz one year to fix this and if he can’t, show him the door. This is a job that good coaches would now jump at.

Green Bay Packers (Mike McCarthy) – Keep ’em
McCarthy continues to build on the success he’s instilled into Green Bay. No reason to change direction now.

Minnesota Vikings (Leslie Frazier) – Keep ’em
After a slow start to the Frazier era in Minnesota, I now think Frazier has the team headed in the right direction. Yes, they may not yet have a long term solution at quarterback, but many of the other pieces are in place and Frazier has done a nice job in spite of not having a top tier quarterback.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (Mike Smith) – Keep ’em
No question here. I think Mike Smith is one of the top coaches in the game right now.

Carolina Panthers (Ron Rivera) – Keep ’em
I originally wrote this post saying the Panthers should be fired, putting up a good argument as to why. As I thought about it more and stared at what I wrote, I thought I was a little too harsh on Rivera. The Panthers are bad, but those problems extend far beyond Rivera to the GM and even to the owner. Rivera is stuck with Cam Newton as his quarterback, a player who has clearly struggled this year and likely will continue to. Great fantasy player, but not a guy I’d want on my real team. I would give Rivera one more year to show more progress, but I’m skeptical he’ll be able to with Newton under center.

New Orleans Saints (Sean Payton, Aaron Kromer, Joe Vitt) – Keep ’em
Tough year for the Saints, one in which I’m not even sure who to call the coach. I guess it was Joe Vitt, but he will definitely not return in that capacity next year. Instead, Sean Payton will return, and Vitt will go back to his role as linebackers coach. Payton should most definitely return to this team. He’s sorely needed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Greg Schiano) – Keep ’em
I really like what Schiano has done in his first season in Tampa, except for that odd move to not allow an opposing team to simply down the ball when ahead to run out the clock. Even that strange decision was part of a larger culture change he’s brought to the Buccaneers though. This is a team on the rise.

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (Ken Whisenhunt) – Can ’em
Time to start over. Whisenhunt has had a difficult time building on the success the Cardinals had in 2008 and 2009 when they reached the playoffs (and Super Bowl in 2008). He followed those seasons with win totals of five and eight the next two years and currently has five this season. The Cardinals suffered through a nine game losing streak in the middle of this season. I question Whisenhunt’s ability to identify quarterback talent and develop young talent. His high points with Arizona came with veteran Kurt Warner starting. Following that he’s made a number of mistakes in bringing new quarterbacks in and also developing new, young ones. He may be better suited for a team with an established veteran. If we look at chances for quarterback improvement next year, I don’t see a lot of veteran choices out there. The best option is probably Kirk Cousins, Washington’s backup, but he’s young and would need a good coaching staff to continue working to develop him. I think Whisenhunt’s a good coach who may find himself with another head coaching job in the future, but I don’t see this team improving much next year with him.

Saint Louis Rams (Jeff Fisher) – Keep ’em
I really like what Fisher has done this season. He’s turned the Rams around and they are primed for success in the future. Two wins over division power San Francisco (yes, I’m counting that tie as a win for the Rams) is a good starting point.

San Francisco 49ers (Jim Harbaugh) – Keep ’em
Those in San Francisco know I’m pretty critical of Harbaugh, but he’s a good head coach and has changed that organization.

Seattle Seahawks (Pete Carroll) – Keep ’em
I never thought we’d see this kind of success from Carroll. To be quite honest, I thought Seattle was going to serve as a temporary stop for him as he waited out NCAA sanctions against him until he went back to the college game free from any NCAA-imposed baggage. His performance has surprised me and I now think we’ll be seeing him on the Seahawks sideline for some time.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york

NFL Week 15: The Couchletes Pick ‘Em

It’s crunch time! As we tick down toward the playoffs we are highly anticipating the games this week. It’s a doozy of a week with some stellar match-ups. We have the Giants squaring off against the struggling Falcons in Atlanta. The surging Packers in Chicago to take on the consistently offensively potent Bears. Denver in Baltimore. Indy in Houston. The Niners in New England. And, the Chiefs in Oakland … oh wait, no one cares about that game.

This week could yield some playoff spot-clinching moments and, possibly, some playoff home field advantage clinching wins.

Last week’s game were no less exciting and meaningful. We saw Andrew Luck lead yet another come from behind victory for the Colts. The Vikings beat the Bears (huh?). The Panthers beat the Falcons by 10 (um, what?). And the Seahawks, yes, the Seahawks put up 58 points and snatch eight turnovers from the utterly terrible Cardinals. What a strange, strange NFL world we’re living in.

We can’t wait to see what this week has in store! On to the picks …

Match-up Kevin Ryan Rahul Mark Hoa
CIN vs. @PHI CIN CIN PHI CIN
@ATL vs. NYG NYG NYG NYG ATL
GB vs. @CHI GB GB GB GB
@CLE vs. WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS
@STL vs. MIN STL STL MIN STL
@MIA vs. JAX MIA MIA MIA MIA
@NO vs. TB NO NO NO NO
DEN vs. @BAL DEN DEN BAL DEN
@HOU vs. IND HOU HOU HOU HOU
SEA vs. @BUF SEA SEA SEA BUF
DET vs. @ARI DET DET DET DET
@SD vs. CAR SD SD CAR SD
PIT vs. @DAL PIT PIT PIT DAL
@OAK vs. KC OAK OAK OAK KC
@NE vs. SF NE NE SF SF
@TEN vs. NYJ NYJ TEN TEN TEN

NFL Week 14: The Couchletes Pick ‘Em

Admittedly, we’ve been slacking off a bit with the picks post. We started to figure, why post something that proves we’re experts? We don’t need to prove anything. We’re smarter than the average sports fans, this is known. Obviously.

Despite that and after some encouragement from our EIC, we put the post together again because it “drives traffic.” Whatever that counts for when we have no advertising. But I digress …

The last few weeks in the NFL have been great, but I can already sense the tears coming to my eyes as we near the end of the season. True, the playoffs are still ahead and, of course, the Super Bowl but the end is near. That said, we’re going to enjoy these last remaining weeks of the regular season as it becomes clearer and clearer which teams are contenders and pretenders. Some teams like the Denver Broncos seem to really be gelling and separating themselves from the rest of the pack in the AFC. This is great news for those of us that have seen their fill of the Steelers and Ravens, though Big Ben is allegedly coming back this week and I can’t imagine he’ll be very happy after having missed so much time, which probably means bad news for his opponent this week, the lowly San Diego Chargers.

We just launched our NFL Power 5 for this week and we saw some familiar and some not so familiar faces in the rankings. The top two remained the same as they have nearly all season (the Texans and Falcons), but both have proven recently they can be beaten. That’s why the home stretch of this season is going to be a doozy. Some teams are already wrapping up playoff berths, like the Broncos, while others have their sights set on home field advantage. Or, if you’re the 49ers, you’re busy dicking around with the starting quarterback role and inviting a bunch of unneeded tension and attention into the locker room.

On to the picks. Enjoy Week 14!

Match-up Kevin Ryan Rahul Hoa Mark
DEN vs. @OAK DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN
@BUF vs. STL BUF STL BUF BUF BUF
@CIN vs. DAL CIN CIN DAL CIN CIN
@CLE vs. KC CLE CLE CLE CLE CLE
@IND vs. TEN IND IND IND IND IND
CHI vs. @MIN CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI
@PIT vs. SD PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT
@TB vs. PHI TB TB PHI PHI TB
@WAS vs. BAL WAS WAS BAL WAS BAL
ATL vs. @CAR ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
NYJ vs. @JAX NYJ NYJ NYJ JAX NYJ
@SF vs. MIA SF SF SF SF SF
@NYG vs. NO NYG NYG NO NYG NO
@SEA vs. ARI SEA SEA ARI SEA SEA
@GB vs. DET GB GB GB GB GB
@NE vs. HOU NE HOU HOU NE HOU

Are We Seeing the Real Jim Harbaugh Emerge?

For every first time head coach, there comes a moment when he shows his true colors. The first season, or even two, don’t always really show who the guy is or what he’s consistently capable of.

When a coach takes a new job, there is often either a honeymoon phase or a period of time where he faces some struggles. Rarely does a coach step into a situation, see immediate success (and I’m talking about ‘real’ widely acknowledged, traditional success, not relative success like if the Browns or Raiders won 7 games), and consistently continue delivering that level of success. The only recent examples I can think of are Mike Tomlin of the Steelers and John Harbaugh of the Ravens.

Some head coaches never figure out a way to get past the initial struggles and never see success in that first job. They typically last 3 years or so. Steve Spagnuolo (Rams) and Rod Marinelli (Lions) are recent examples of this.

A handful of coaches struggled in year one, had a good year two, but then fell back into year one status and can’t get out of it. Todd Haley (Chiefs), Brad Childress (Vikings) and Raheem Morris (Bucs) fall into this category.

Then there are a number of coaches that saw success initially and then fell into a place of mediocrity or in some cases, bottomed out. Tony Sparano (Dolphins; 11 wins in his first season), Eric Mangini (Jets; 10 wins) and Jim Caldwell (Colts; 14 wins) all got off to great starts as head coaches and appeared to be solid choices. Of course, after the honeymoon period wore off, we saw what each of them really were. Then there are coaches like Todd Ha

I think the ultimate case study of this type of honeymoon period coach is Rex Ryan of the Jets. He began his head coaching career with a 9-7 season followed by an even better 11-5 season. In both of these first two years he took the Jets to the AFC Championship game. But then he followed those seasons up with an 8-8 season, missing the playoffs. The Jets are currently 4-6 under Ryan and he’s on the hot seat. Keep in mind, the team hasn’t changed all that much from his first two seasons to where they are now.

This all leads me to the current case of San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. As we all know, his first year as head coach was a giant success. The Niners only lost three regular season games and he took them to the NFC Championship, losing a close game to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Harbaugh brought a big change in mentality to the Niners. However, something always struck me as a little different about him. He wore his emotions a little too much on his sleeve, was almost a little too fiery for a head coach. As of late, we haven’t seen many head coaches in this mold have prolonged success. It’s certainly not the style we see from Bill Belichik, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, Tom Coughlin or even Harbaugh’s own brother John – all head coaches that have seen consistent success (and no, you can’t convince me that Coughlin or John Harbaugh come near Jim’s level of emotion and fire; the guy’s all over the field, running and yelling). They’re much more in control of their emotions, some to the degree that they’re downright stoic. You can argue that a fiery head coach can be successful too, but when’s the last time we saw one win a Super Bowl? It was Bill Cowher in 2006 and prior to that it was Jon Gruden in 2003. To find one before them we have to go all the way back to Mike Ditka. Analytical coaches seem to be more the style and successful model over the past 20 years. Jim Harbaugh’s style always had a certain Rex Ryan feel to it. It seemed to work though. He had a good first season and the second has been off to a great start.

But last week, something changed. Rahul discussed it a bit previously. Harbaugh created his own quarterback controversy by starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback against the Saints after regular starter Alex Smith was medically cleared to take the field following his recovery from a concussion. Kaepernick had a good game against the Saints and it seemed to indicate that the Niners found their quarterback of the future.

But not so fast…

Harbaugh came out this week saying Alex Smith is still his starter and that he would decide on a starter for Sunday’s game at St. Louis by midweek.

“Alex Smith is our starting quarterback. He has not done anything to lose that job,” Harbaugh said. “In fact, he’s playing at a very high level. Also, Colin Kaepernick, you can’t categorize him as a backup quarterback, because he’s started games and played very well in those games.”

Uh, what?

Jimmy…if Alex Smith is still your starter, then why are you saying you’ll name a starter by midweek? Didn’t you just do that by saying Alex is your starting quarterback? Of course you also tacitly implied that Kaepernick is also your starter in the very same statement.

This whole weird situation now has me questioning Harbaugh’s intelligence. Last week he already alienated Alex Smith by starting Kaepernick. Smith lost his job not due to poor performance, but to injury. And this came after an off season where Harbaugh did everything short of picking up a microphone and singing “Stand By Your Man” to show his commitment to Smith as his QB now and into the future after reports surfaced that San Francisco showed interest in Peyton Manning. Seems like Kaepernick now has to also be wondering about Harbaugh’s ongoing commitment to him with Harbaugh proactively offering up that he hasn’t decided on a QB for this Sunday yet. Kaepernick had two above average very good performances against the likes of the Bears and Saints and could now lose his job as the starter? Due to what?… He has to be asking “what gives?” much like Smith was wondering prior to the Saints game.

In discussing the situation, Harbaugh offered up comments admitting that the situation is difficult for both Smith and Kaepernick:

“The guys will be hammered,” Harbaugh said. “You go to Colin, you go to Alex, ‘Should you be the starter?’ He’s got no good answer for you. He says, ‘Yes, I should be the starter’ — we’re talking either one — and you look like you’re just building up yourself. If you say no, then they hammer you because you don’t think you should be the starter. Then the people, so-called subject matter experts, who talk about, ‘You should be making a fuss about it or a stink about it, you shouldn’t be that accommodating,’ it sends a completely wrong message, to me, for young athletes out there, or high school quarterbacks, where their coach is trying to tell them it’s about the team and all of us working together. So that one gets me upset. That’s not what our two guys are about.”

That was a rambling, borderline incoherent semblance of a thought. But after reading it three times and finally digesting what I think he was trying to say, my response is: that’s a very nice, idealistic thought, Jim. These aren’t young athletes though. These are two professional athletes who make money to play this game. You say your guys aren’t about stating that they’re the best. They should be. That’s what I want from my quarterback. Top quarterbacks in this league wouldn’t stand by so nonchalantly as their job is dangled in front of them. They’d fight for it, in play and in words. While I respect both men for not talking publicly about this, it’s ridiculous to have the expectation that they’ll continue to fall in line behind Harbaugh (who has now betrayed them both to a certain degree) and tow the company line.

That statement from Harbaugh also made me start thinking about the San Francisco locker room beyond just Smith and Kaepernick. These guys make money based on the passes they catch, touchdowns they score, games they win. Eventually it will come to a point where sides are taken. Harbaugh doesn’t want that to happen. He doesn’t want a locker room divided. Now that Harbaugh turned his back on Smith and has also done so to Kaepernick by not standing by him as the starter after posting two solid wins, when will other guys in the locker room start to wonder if he’ll take the same position with them? If I get an injury, will my job be there when I come back or will Coach turn his back on me? Will free agents want to come into that environment?

Harbaugh has always been a rah-rah type of guy. After all, this is the guy that used that ridiculous “who’s got it better than us?!” cheer last year (for Smith and Kaepernick, I can say their answer to that right now is: the quarterbacks of the other 31 teams in the league that know where their place on their team is). But where is the mental side of coaching and instilling confidence in your team that should recognize he’s treading on thin water by creating his own quarterback controversy? Especially for a guy that played quarterback in the NFL and went through this same type of thing (with Mike Tomczak when both were battle for the starting spot with the Bears in the early 90s)? He knows the mindset, the ups and downs, from his own experience.

I think many have assumed that Harbaugh is a good X’s and O’s guy. Look at that coaching staff though. He has two stellar coordinators supporting him in Vic Fangio and Greg Roman. Two guys that should, and likely will, receive consideration for head coaching jobs this off-season. Is it possible that Harbaugh is a lot of bravado and charisma and those guys carry a significant part of the credit for the on-field turnaround?

Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but Jim Harbaugh is on dangerous, slippery territory. Is this a momentary lapse in judgement (albeit a big one) by a good coach or is the Real Jim Harbaugh now emerging in a fashion similar to how the Real Rex Ryan eventually emerged? Only time will tell.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york

NFL Week 11: The Couchletes Pick ‘Em

So, while Kevin decided to take the last three weeks off to get married – as if that’s important – the rest of us also took that same time off. They say the captain sets the tone on the field and, well, Kevin stepping out to battle a hurricane in Boston and ultimately landing on the soft, sandy beaches of Maui for 10 days really didn’t motivate any of us to pick him up while he was out. Sorry, Kev.

Now that he’s returned from paradise he’s cracking the whip and here we are.

The last few weeks in the NFL have been intriguing to say the very least. The recent rash of midseason injuries to some of the league’s elite coupled with the uprising of young talent has really put a spin on this season I think we were all waiting for. The word “parity” is overused these days, but we recently saw a graphic that showed how close these teams really can be on Sundays.

Going clockwise, each team has beaten the one to its right

We’re seeing more and more upsets in recent weeks, but we’re also seeing the cream starting to rise to the top. Shockingly this cream includes teams like the Colts, Seahawks, and the Broncos. The Broncos have really turned it on recently as Peyton Manning has gotten more and more comfortable calling the shots in a new offense with new personnel. It’s hard to say anyone doubted he would get there but last summer it was hard to tell. The rest of the cream is made of the usual suspects – Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, etc., etc. We get it. You’re good. While it’s nice to still have some consistency among the league’s best I think we’re all ready for parity to takeover some and deliver us some intriguing storylines in this second half of the season.

With that, here are The Couchlete’s Week 11 picks that contain very few chosen upsets but, I’d say, a lot of hope for some. We’re playing for pride here. Let’s be real. I’m not picking the Lions to upset Green Bay, but you can bet I’ll be pulling for them.

Match-up Kevin Ryan Rahul Hoa Mark
@BUF vs. MIA MIA BUF BUF MIA MIA
@ATL vs. ARI ATL ATL ATL ATL ATL
@DAL vs. CLE DAL DAL DAL DAL DAL
GB vs. @DET GB GB GB GB GB
CIN vs. @KC CIN CIN KC CIN CIN
@STL vs. NYJ STL STL NYJ STL NYJ
@WAS vs. PHI WAS WAS PHI WAS PHI
TB vs. @CAR TB TB TB TB TB
@HOU vs. JAX HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU
NO vs. @OAK NO NO NO NO NO
@DEN vs. SD DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN
@NE vs. IND NE NE IND NE NE
BAL vs. @PIT BAL BAL BAL BAL BAL
@SF vs. CHI SF CHI SF SF SF