Category Archives: NFL

2013 NFL Pro Bowl Preview

By Kevin York

Since I’ve written previews on a number of this season’s playoff games, including the AFC and NFC Championships, I thought I should write one for the Pro Bowl as well. Especially since it’s such an important game and fantastic match-up of strong, motivated teams.

Ok, I’m just kidding. I’m not actually writing a Pro Bowl preview. Does anyone really care about the Pro Bowl? I mean, the people playing in the game don’t even care that much.

Here’s what you can expect:

  •  Lots of scoring
  • Soft, if any, defense
  • Poor tackling
  • Potentially the last time we’ll see this game (reportedly, if the players continue not playing hard, the NFL may not play the game anymore)

So if you’re not doing anything today and find yourself watching the game, enjoy! Hope it’s better than the last few…

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

Cleveland Browns Head Coach Rob Chudzinski: All the Right Moves

By Kevin York

Photo Credit: (Chuck Crow/The Plain Dealer)

Photo Credit: (Chuck Crow/The Plain Dealer)

Don’t laugh. I know. You read the title of this post and started laughing. Cleveland Browns and “all the right moves?” I admit, yes, that title seems like the ultimate contradiction, an oxymoron. Humor me for a minute though as I talk through this.

When the Cleveland Browns hired Rob Chudzinski I was a bit surprised. I thought they were going to go for a bigger, splashier name. They interviewed the ‘IT’ head coaching prospect Chip Kelly, after all. They also reportedly interviewed Penn State’s Bill O’Brien. After both men turned them down I thought they’d move on to someone with NFL head coaching experience, maybe trying to lure a Jon Gruden, Steve Mariucci, Brian Billick or Bill Cowher back to the sidelines. Or maybe they’d pursue a hot assistant like Bruce Arians or Greg Roman.

Nope. Instead they turned to the man that ran Carolina’s offense for the past two seasons. He had a solid 2011 campaign, but the offense seemed to regress this year. Now whether that can be pinned on Chudzinski or deserves to be blamed on quarterback Cam Newton and his sophomore slump is a valid question, but nonetheless, either way it left many wondering how good Chudzinski actually is as a coach. After being named head coach of the Browns, the question began arising, is this new Browns senior management regime any better than the old one. President Joe Banner possesses some positive experience from his time with Philadelphia. He plucked Andy Reid out of a virtual nowhere. Still, where’s the big name? Can this Chudzinski guy get them out of the cellar? Shouldn’t they have chosen someone with more experience?

Rob Chudzinski has started to answer these questions and has done so through the way he’s been filling out his coaching staff. Chudzinksi made the two most important hires on his staff in early January. He chose fired San Diego Chargers coach Norv Turner to lead the offense and former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton to fill the same role for the Browns.

Photo Credit: (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Many have criticized Norv Turner for the job he did in San Diego and yes, I was one of those people. Turner wasn’t a great head coach. Of course, he also wasn’t a terrible one. Don’t look at him and judge the hire based on his head coaching success (or lack thereof) though. Look at his past performance as an offensive coordinator:

  • Turner served as offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys from 1991-1993. You may remember that those Cowboys teams won back to back Super Bowls during that time period. Turner drove that high powered offense featuring Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, among others.
  • In 2006, Turner served as offensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers. He was the only offensive coordinator to get any sort of positive production out of Alex Smith until the current Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman regime arrived in town.

Don’t forget, Turner also had some really good offenses in San Diego as head coach. What I’m getting at, is that the guy is no slouch when it comes to guiding an offense.

Photo Credit: (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Ray Horton turned the Arizona Cardinals into one of the top defensive teams in the league. The few wins the Cardinals had this year, were largely due to excellent defensive play since its offense was anemic. Horton was interviewed for several head coaching jobs this offseason, including Arizona and Cleveland. I think this is a great hire. Horton is one of the top young defensive minds in the game.

Chudzinkski has also been smart about the assistants he retained from Pat Shurmur’s old Browns staff. He kept the special teams coach and offensive line coach. Cleveland was near the top of the league in both of those areas. It was very smart to keep continuity for those units that were already performing well.

The decisions he’s made in his short time on the job has me thinking Chudzinski could see success in Cleveland. Of course, there’s a lot more to the job than just choosing a staff, but Browns fans have reason to feel optimistic about their new head coach given what we’ve seen so far.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

Overlooked Assistants: These Guys are Due

By Kevin York

All the open NFL head coaching jobs have been filled now. Just to recap, here are the new faces in their new places:

  • Arizona Cardinals – Bruce Arians (former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator)
  • Buffalo Bills – Doug Marrone (former Syracuse University head coach)
  • Chicago Bears – Marc Trestman (former Montreal Alouettes head coach)
  • Cleveland Browns – Rob Chudzinski (former Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars – Gus Bradley (former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator)
  • Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid (former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator)
  • Philadelphia Eagles – Chip Kelly (former University of Oregon head coach)
  • San Diego Chargers – Mike McCoy (former Denver Broncos offensive coordinator)

This year there seemed to be a higher than usual number of college head coaches considered for an NFL head coaching job. Kelly and Marrone were of course ultimately hired, but Penn State’s Bill O’Brien and Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly were also considered by at least one team.

It didn’t seem like there were as many NFL assistant coaches considered this year. Aside from the three men listed above who previously served as coordinators, there were only a few NFL assistants that frequently surfaced as candidates: Ray Horton (former Cardinals defensive coordinator, now Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator), Jay Gruden (Bengals offensive coordinator) and Keith Armstrong (Falcons special teams coordinator). All three of those men are certainly deserving, but I feel like there are three current NFL assistants that were really overlooked in the interview process.

Photo Credit: (Karl Mondon/Times-Herald)

Photo Credit: (Karl Mondon/Times-Herald)

Vic Fangio, San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator
When Jim Harbaugh became head coach of the 49ers and Fangio took over the defense, he had a good amount of talent to work with, but he put all those pieces together and guided the unit to the top of the league. In both years under Fangio, most would say San Francisco’s defense has been one of the top three in the league and all the statistical categories would back that up.

Additionally, Fangio figured out ways to incorporate players such as Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner who were cast offs from previous teams. People saw those guys as talented yet underperforming, which is why San Francisco was able to get them on the cheap. Fangio figured out ways to incorporate them into his defense and hide some of their flaws. He’s done such a stellar job of this that Rogers and Whitner have received some undue credit for their performance in these last two years. The scheme and personnel management talent that Fangio has shown are important skills for a head coach to possess.

Photo Credit: (NFL Photos/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (NFL Photos/Getty Images)

Winston Moss, Green Bay Packers Assistant Head Coach/Inside Linebackers Coach
The former NFL linebacker has been an assistant coach since 1998 and has steadily risen through the ranks until he became assistant head coach of the Packers in 2007. He’s been seen as a talented assistant for some time and I actually thought he’d get more consideration for a head job by now.

Moss has coached Green Bay’s inside linebackers since he joined the team as an assistant in 2006. What he’s done is create one of the deepest positions on the team. Actually, probably the deepest besides wide receiver. Look at the unit this year. The starting inside linebackers were supposed to be A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop. Then Bishop got hurt and D.J. Smith moved into his spot. Then Smith got hurt and Brad Jones moved into his spot. Yes, a third string player ended up starting for most of the season – and did well. Moss also worked Robert Francois into his rotation and to a lesser degree, young developing players Jamari Lattimore and Terrell Manning. He’s shown a keen ability to develop young talent, a must have skill for an NFL head coach.

Photo Credit: (Jeff Chiu/AP)

Photo Credit: (Jeff Chiu/AP)

Greg Roman, San Francisco 49ers Offensive Coordinator
What Roman has done in San Francisco is pretty remarkable. He took Alex Smith, a quarterback that was pretty much left for dead, and turned him into a Pro Bowler. No previous San Francisco offensive coordinator, except Norv Turner, had ever been able to get even consistent game management from Smith and Roman makes the guy a league leader in passing efficiency and QBR. Head coach Jim Harbaugh gets all the credit for revitalizing Smith, but Roman deserves just as much credit, if not more.

What’s possibly even more impressive is that Roman shifted the offense, in mid-season, to tailor it more for Colin Kaepernick’s skills and comfort level after Harbaugh made a quarterback switch following Smith’s concussion. The result? An offense that became dynamic and explosive. It didn’t miss a beat and improved in most areas. That’s the kind of work I’d look for in a head coach.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

Kevin’s 2012 NFL All Pro Team

By Kevin York

Yesterday we revealed the winners of our awards for the 2012 NFL season. To continue with the theme of recognizing the game’s best players of this season, today I’d like to reveal my 2012 All-Pro team. Keep in mind, this team was selected solely by me; it wasn’t decided by all of us. If you asked some of the other Couchletes for their all-pros, I’m sure they’d have many more 49ers on their team. But me? I’m a little more unbiased than them (that’s right, zero Green Bay Packers on my all-pro team).

A lot of thought went into this team so I want to explain a little for context. You’ll see no fullback on this team. Only a handful of teams even use a fullback anymore, so instead of naming one for the sake of history like the AP does (I guess that’s why they do it), I decided to name a modern all-pro team, replacing the fullback with a third wide receiver. Apologies to Vonta Leach, Marcel Reece and Michael Robinson. Sorry, guys, I can’t rationalize putting one of you on the team over someone like Brandon Marshall.

Another thing the AP does with their team, and a lot of writers do the same thing, is name 12 people to their defense – four down lineman and four linebackers. Again, that’s not a modern lineup. Hell, that’s not even a legal lineup unless you want a 12 men on the field penalty. Either choose a 4-3 or a 3-4. I decided to go with a 4-3 for mine so you’ll see four down linemen and three linebackers.

Like I said, I put quite a bit of thought into this, but let me know what you think. If you think I’m out of my mind (or even if you actually agree with me), leave a comment.

Kevin’s 2012 NFL All-Pro Team

Offense
Quarterback – Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Running Back – Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Wide Receiver – Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Wide Receiver – Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Tackle – Duane Brown, Houston Texans
Guard – Mike Iupati, San Francisco 49ers
Center – John Sullivan, Minnesota Vikings
Guard – Marshal Yanda, Baltimore Ravens
Tackle – Ryan Clady, Denver Broncos
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Wide Receiver – Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears

Defense
Defensive End – J.J. Watt, Houston Texans
Defensive Tackle – Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals
Defensive Tackle – Vince Wilfork, New England Patriots
Defensive End – Cameron Wake, Miami Dolphins
Outside Linebacker – Von Miller, Denver Broncos
Inside/Middle Linebacker – Daryl Washington, Arizona Cardinals
Outside Linebacker – Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Cornerback – Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks
Cornerback – Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears
Free Safety – Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills
Strong Safety – Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers

Special Teams
Kicker – Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings
Punter – Thomas Morstead, New Orleans Saints
Return Specialist – Jacoby Jones, Baltimore Ravens

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

The Couchletes’ 2012 NFL Season Awards

By Kevin York

In December, I wrote a post previewing the NFL season awards, going division by division and highlighting the best players of the year and the potential candidates for our year end awards. Today we’re ready to reveal the best of the best, our choices for MVP, Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, and Coach of the Year.

I’m not going to go through our winners and highlight a lot of stats. If you want that, check out all the other sports sites. We’re Couchletes. We don’t have the time or means to do all the research to show why a quarterback is more valuable than a running back, so I’m not going to approach this like that. I’m just going to talk, like Couchletes do.

MVP – Peyton Manning

Photo Credit: (Peter Aiken/AP)

Photo Credit: (Peter Aiken/AP)

Peyton Manning showed us what he’s worth this year. Six wins. This year’s Denver team wasn’t much different than last year’s – except at quarterback. Exchanging Tim Tebow for Peyton Manning gave them six additional wins and the top seed in the AFC. Ironically, in the playoffs the two quarterbacks reached the exact same point. We’re not going to focus on that though since this is a regular season award.

Why Manning over Adrian Peterson? Manning was playing the most crucial position on the football field and led an entirely new offense for Denver. He brought it all together. Yes, Peterson was the entire offense for Minnesota, but a quarterback has more responsibilities.
Others considered: Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady

Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Peterson

Photo Credit: (Patric Schneider/AP)

Photo Credit: (Patric Schneider/AP)

Peterson very nearly had an all-time great season, as in better than anyone else – ever. He missed attaining that status by only nine yards. Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson actually did have an all-time great year, breaking Jerry Rice’s single season receiving yards record. So why Peterson over Johnson? It was a tough decision, but ultimately, Peterson carried more of his team’s offensive load. He needed people to block for him, but did the rest himself. Johnson needed someone to throw him the ball and people to give that person time to get him the ball. We found Peterson’s year slightly more spectacular than Johnson’s.
Others considered: Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady, Brandon Marshall

Defensive Player of the Year – J.J. Watt

Photo Credit: (Dave Einsel/AP)

Photo Credit: (Dave Einsel/AP)

J.J. Watt redefined the way not only defensive linemen play the game but also the way offensive linemen play it. It’s mind-blowing how quickly a man that big can move. Equally impressive is how great he is at defending both the run and the pass. Rarely do you find a lineman that excels so much at both. A lot of attention went to Aldon Smith and his quest to break the single-season sack record. Lost in all of that attention was the fact that Watt was just as close to breaking it.
Others considered: Von Miller, Aldon Smith, Geno Atkins

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Andrew Luck

Photo Credit: (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Photo Credit: (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

This was a strong category, but we ultimately decided that Andrew Luck stood out more than the other contenders. Luck put up great numbers for a rookie and did it without much help around him, not nearly as much as Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III had to work with. Those two had great running games and great offensive lines to take the pressure off of them a bit. Luck didn’t have either of those and had a receiving corps comprised of Reggie Wayne and a number of no-names. Additionally, Luck was handed the entire playbook from day one. Wilson and RG3 were allowed to gradually assume more of the offense each week. That’s why we saw the Redskins running Baylor’s offense near the beginning of the year. Luck didn’t get that luxury and proved he could handle it.
Others considered: Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Alfred Morris

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Luke Kuechly

Photo Credit: (Bob Leverone/AP)

Photo Credit: (Bob Leverone/AP)

This is the award that goes largely unnoticed. The general public doesn’t know the defensive rookies nearly as well as the offensive rookies. Those people missed the play of Carolina’s Luke Kuechly, a middle linebacker who should soon be finding himself appearing in Pro Bowls alongside the likes of Patrick Willis. Kueckly anchored that defense, a unit that didn’t have a lot of talent, and played superbly.
Others considered: Casey Hayward, Janoris Jenkins, Bobby Wagner

Coach of the Year – Chuck Pagano/Bruce Arians

Photo Credit: (AJ Mast/AP)

Photo Credit: (AJ Mast/AP)

No one expected the Indianapolis Colts to be very good this year. After news surfaced that Head Coach Chuck Pagano would miss much of the season due to treatment for leukemia, the expectations fell even more. The job that Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians did this year given the circumstances was extraordinary. Arians certainly proved he deserved a head coaching job, which he received in Arizona, and I’m excited to see what Pagano can do given a full season next year. This combination overachieved with a team that didn’t have a ton of talent. Getting the kind of results they did make it hard to argue with giving them this recognition over any other.
Others considered: Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

AFC Championship Game Preview

By Kevin York

Well, this isn’t the game any of us thought it would be two weeks ago, or even one week ago. The Ravens weren’t supposed to be here. This was supposed to be another Brady-Manning classic, but Baltimore crashed the party. So instead we have a rematch of last years AFC Championship, a game which was actually a class in and of itself; however, I have a feeling this game will play out much differently than last year when many felt Baltimore outplayed the Patriots, yet Brady and company stole the game.

Photo Credit: (Matt Slocum/AP)

Photo Credit: (Matt Slocum/AP)

Baltimore Ravens
The big story with Baltimore this post season has been Ray Lewis and the going away party his teammates are throwing him, but the storyline that hasn’t received as much attention, and I think it actually the bigger one, is the change at offensive coordinator that John Harbaugh made near the end of the season. Since taking over for the fired Cam Cameron, Jim Caldwell has totally changed the dynamics of this offense. He has confidence in quarterback Joe Flacco and lets him throw the ball downfield. This isn’t the same conservative, sometimes even tentative, offense we saw most of the season. Earlier this week, Don Banks over at Sports Illustrated wrote a nice article looking statistically at just how much of a positive affect Caldwell has had on the offense. As Banks notes, “the Ravens under Caldwell have averaged 450.8 yards of offense and 28 points over their past four games, with superb balance (188.8 yards rushing and 262.0 passing).”

I expect Caldwell to open things up and show some new plays, maybe even new formations, in an attempt to confuse New England. Remember, Caldwell is very familiar with Bill Belichik and the Patriots from the many years he served as an assistant on Tony Dungy’s Colts staff. He is well aware of what he’s facing and how he’ll have to outsmart the Patriots’ mastermind.

We won’t see Baltimore try and run the ball a lot. New England has big, strong linebackers that are very good at stopping the run and crashing into gaps. I expect them to go to the air more and attack New England’s weaker secondary. That may open the run later, but I think we’ll see Flacco really air it out early.

Baltimore’s defense has played well enough to win this postseason, but make no mistake, this is not the Ravens defense we’ve seen in the past. They’re older and slower, and may be a little tired. They’ve been on the field a lot in their first two playoff games and will now be facing one of the best offenses in the NFL a week after a tiring overtime thriller in Denver.

The Ravens will likely struggle to defend the New England passing attack. The Patriots have added a few wrinkles this year that they didn’t have last year, like the faster Brandon Lloyd who really came on late in the season. The New England offensive line has also protected Brady better than last year. With Baltimore’s pass rush not being quite as good as last year, that’s a recipe for a real problem for the Ravens defensive front. With the ways New England has used their running backs lately, the Ravens front seven are certainly facing an athletic disadvantage. They don’t have a linebacker fast enough to line up opposite Shane Vereen if he slots out as a receiver.

Photo Credit: (Steven Savoia/AP)

Photo Credit: (Steven Savoia/AP)

New England Patriots
In contrast to Baltimore, New England is exactly where we all expected them to be at this moment in time. This year’s Patriots team seems like a team on a mission. That’s naturally the kind of mentality that Belichik instills in them, but it just feels even more workmanlike this year, and specifically over the second half of the season, than they have in years past. The Super Bowl loss to the Giants last year was a black eye for this team, something that deep down I think they’re a little embarrassed and ashamed of. Twice now, they’ve lost Super Bowl games to the Giants that they should’ve won. Different makeups of those two teams, yes (in fact, very few people from that 2008 team were still playing for the Pats last year ), but I’m sure last year’s team certainly felt somewhat linked to the earlier one.

New England’s offense is one of the strongest in the NFL and has been for some time. As the season went on it seemed like they continued to add new dimensions to it, even as starters went down to injuries. The latest example was last week against Houston when Shane Vereen, filling in for Danny Woodhead, emerged with a breakout performance, both in the running game and passing game. It’s really remarkable how well Belichik and his staff develop players. New England is showing that it’s the deepest team in the league.

Tom Brady will have a big game. All week people have been discussing how he got outplayed by Joe Flacco last year. Mike Greenberg said that last year he was simply average in the playoffs. That type of stuff motivates this guy and I think it’ll fuel his fire on Sunday.

The Baltimore defense opens up a lot of opportunities for the Patriots. For one, the Ravens really only have one strong, consistent pass rusher in Paul Kruger. That means lots of time for Brady to sit in the pocket and make his way through his progressions until he finds an open receiver. He will be able to pass the ball on this Ravens secondary. The other opportunity is using their running backs in unique ways – lining them up in the slot or even out wide.

Aside from Aqib Talib, the New England secondary could be exposed by Joe Flacco. The unit is solidly built to contain Ray Rice and the Raven run game, but they’re not quite as astute in pass coverage. I think Baltimore will try and attack the middle of the Patriots defense in the passing game because New England’s linebackers (Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and Dont’a Hightower) aren’t particularly quick. New England will have to make up for that by playing a zone and not leaving those guys alone on an island.

The Final Word
At some point a team can’t survive on emotion anymore and talent comes into the equation. I think this week is when that happens for Baltimore. Up and down the rosters, New England is the stronger team at every position except running back. Talent wins out this week as New England punches its second straight ticket to the Super Bowl. This game won’t be as close as last year when it came down to the very end for the Patriots to win, but it also won’t be the blow out that some are expecting. I think we’ll see New England win by around ten points or so.

You can read The Couchletes’ preview of the NFC Championship game here.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

NFC Championship Game Preview

By Kevin York

I debated on if I should write game previews for the NFC and AFC Championships. After all, the last time I did this, and first time I did a preview on this blog, it didn’t work out so well, did it? Oh well, life goes on. At least after I spent Saturday night and Sunday angry, bitter and constantly muttering about how the Packers didn’t prepare the right way, how ridiculous it was that they weren’t prepared for San Francisco since even I knew how San Francisco would attack them. I mean, if I’m a sports blogger I’m supposed to make irrational statements like that, right?

So, yes, it’s time to move on and do another preview. This one may even be better because I don’t have any emotion behind it…other than hating the 49ers.

Photo Credit: (Denis Poroy/Associated Press)

Photo Credit: (Denis Poroy/Associated Press)

Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are in an odd position of being the number one overall seed, playing at home, yet being the underdog. They’re the higher seed. And it’s not like they have Peyton Manning playing for them or anything (too soon?).

In all seriousness, Atlanta started the season on fire and were the last team in the league to take a loss. Yet, there was just something about them that didn’t seem complete. No one seemed to give them the same type of respect that another team might receive for accomplishing the same feat. Even looking back at our NFL Power Five that we did throughout the season and posted to our Facebook page on a weekly basis, I could see a clear bias against the Falcons. It’s like we found ways to rank other teams ahead of them, even teams with more losses.

So why the bias against the dirty birds?

In all honesty, I think it’s because the Falcons are a team that flies under the radar (pun intended). There’s not a lot of hype about them. They’ve really taken on the model of their head coach. They’re pretty workman-like in their style and they don’t do much to draw attention to themselves. They have an offense that can be high powered with Matt Ryan connecting with Julio Jones, Roddy White, Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez. On the other hand, they have an offense that can also grind it out behind the running of Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers. In fact, it often seems to be one or the other. For some reason they struggle to find a balance blending the two, as head coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter sometimes appear to forget they have such a strong running game and shy away from it.

Nonetheless, the offense has the potential to be powerful. Matt Ryan improved greatly from last year to this year and I think defenses had to respect him more. The playoff win last week really got a monkey off his back so I expect him to play a bit looser this week. He showed a lot of poise by driving the Falcons into position for Matt Bryant to kick the game winning field goal – especially after the Falcons had a significant lead which they’d blown earlier.

On the defensive side of the ball, I think Atlanta’s pass rush is pretty underrated. The front four applied some nice pressure to Russell Wilson last week against a Seattle offensive line that has played very solidly all year long; however, that front four, front seven really, struggled to defend Cam Newton as a runner in two meetings this year. On Sunday, they’ll face a similar quarterback in Colin Kaepernick so he could certainly create some problems for them.

Atlanta’s secondary is a solid unit, but they raised some questions with the way they allowed Seattle back into the game last week.

I still think their defensive game plan comes down to containing Kaepernick. Green Bay wasn’t able to do it. The Falcons use a base 4-3 defense while Green Bay was using a 3-4. Is the 4-3 better suited to defend a running quarterback attacking you with a read option? I’m not totally sure. I think it’s more dependent on your total team speed. Is Atlanta a faster overall defense than Green Bay? Maybe a little, but they don’t jump out at me as blazers.

Photo Credit: (Michael Macor/San Francisco Chronicle

Photo Credit: (Michael Macor/San Francisco Chronicle)

San Francisco 49ers
I think San Francisco is the heavy favorite. Yes, they are going cross country and playing in a very, very loud indoor stadium, but they’ve been playing much better than Atlanta as of late. While Atlanta struggled with Seattle, San Francisco put on a convincing second half against Green Bay and handedly beat them.

When you look at San Francisco’s offense, it jumps out at me that this unit is now the strength of the team. I mentioned that in my initial thoughts after the divisional round games, but I really can’t get over it. When I look at the weaknesses and potential vulnerabilities of that team, I now see less with the offense than I do with the defense. The element Kaepernick brings with his running has really evolved their attack. He brings something different than a running quarterback like Robert Griffin. Kaepernick has a bigger body, so he appears to be a little more capable of sustaining hits, but more importantly, he looks to throw as he’s rolling out. Now, his field vision can use some work, but when a guy’s running like that, a defense doesn’t really have as much time to focus on where his eyes are looking as he’s going through his progressions.

On a side note, I find the increasing use of the read option by NFL teams very interesting. The option is an offensive play that was actually used for years by teams that had inferior talent, either in size or speed or both. It was a way of tricking the defense and using some sleight of hand to gain an advantage over a team that had more talent than you. That’s the reason that in college football, a team like Air Force is able to compete with teams that have much more size, speed and strength. Air Force traditionally has run not just an option, but a triple option offense (My high school football team, consistently ranked near the top of our division, played one conference team every year, the same one, who ran a triple option offense. It was always one of the hardest games to prepare for even though they were never one of the best teams we’d play. The offense is a pain in the ass to defend and speaking from experience, it really does take away a team’s speed and size advantages). They have to because they don’t have 300 pound linemen. Those guys can’t do the necessary military drills and exercises if they’re that huge. Knowing that history associated with the option offense, I find it somewhat ironic that it’s now being used by NFL offenses to further utilize the speed (and with Kaepernick, the size) of skilled offensive players as an advantage rather than using it to combat larger and faster defenders. In high school I always sort of viewed those running the option as unable to run a “real” offense.

My thoughts on San Francisco’s defense are well versed on this blog. I don’t think they’re quite as good as everyone else seems to think are. However, against Atlanta, I think they match up pretty well. The only potential difficulty they could face is the running game of Atlanta. The 49ers haven’t been quite as good against the run late this year as they were last year and at the beginning of this season. In fact, the Packers even did a decent job of running the ball on them and they don’t have a star running back. Atlanta has a nice mix of power and speed with Turner and Rodgers. That has the potential to create problems for San Francisco because it could pull one of their two safeties into the box to defend the run, opening up Atlanta’s passing game. Against Green Bay it was easier. You dare the Packers to run on you and leave two safeties back, out of the box, to make sure you can defend Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. It’s not quite as easy with Atlanta. Vic Fangio will be forced to make more decisions with his defensive schemes, probably bringing Donte Whitner in to support stopping the run.

The Final Word
So who’s going to win? That’s right, I’m actually going to predict a winner. Now that my team is out, I have no qualms about predicting a winner.

All the momentum in the world is with San Francisco right now. They’re the hotter team and probably the stronger team at this point. It would take someone out of their mind to pick Atlanta to win this game. That’s exactly why I heavily considered it. It’s just a gut feeling, one of those scenarios where you just know the game won’t play out like everyone predicts it to. I think Atlanta will actually be the looser team since all the pressure is on San Francisco. Atlanta knows no one thinks they can win this game. They’ll use it as motivation all week and I think it’ll push them to come out hot. If they get a big lead, that’s the recipe needed for beating San Francisco. Trying to come from behind takes some of Kaepernick’s abilities away from him because it doesn’t allow him to be quite as free with his decision-making. You can’t use a read option offense when you’re down two touchdowns or more. Let’s also not forget that this week Colin Kaepernick made his first appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated. The SI cover jinx is well documented. Seriously, look at that list. It’s long. Way longer than I realized. Let’s also not forget my past comparisons of Jim Harbaugh to Rex Ryan. It would be the ultimate validation of my comparisons for Jimmy to lose his second straight conference championship in only his second season (Rex’s Jets lost two straight AFC championships in his first two years).

All that said, as much as I’d like to pick against San Francisco, I can’t do it. There’s a simple reason that I can’t do it. I want San Francisco to lose. That, of course, means they will win. Buy your tickets and book your Super Bowl flights, Niner fans.

You can read The Couchletes’ preview of the AFC Championship game here.

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

The Ray Lewis Double Standard – The Ray-Ray

By Kevin York

Photo Credit: (Nick Wass/AP)

Photo Credit: (Nick Wass/AP)

I like the Ray Lewis story that’s evolved during this NFL post season. Right before the playoffs started, he announced this is his last season. It’s served as quite the motivator for his team. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a player whose presence on the field has done more to motivate and inspire his team.

“I have to make this catch. For Ray.”

“I need to knock down this pass. For Ray.”

You see it all up and down the Ravens roster. These guys really, really want to win for Lewis. Either that or they’re scared of the wrath of Ray after a loss. Either way, they don’t want to let him down. His teammates want to give him one more run, one more Super Bowl appearance, maybe even one more ring.

Lewis is one of, if not the best, linebacker to ever play the game. He’s a definite first ballot of famer, but people tend to forget the issues he’s had with the law. Prepare yourself, this is kind of a touchy subject. Or at least I think it must be given the silence arounf it. No one ever talks about his obstruction of justice conviction and involvement in a murder charge (you like that old school SI article I just linked to?). But why don’t we talk about it? When we talk about Mike Vick, dogs come up. When we talk about Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens or now Lance Armstrong, steroids come up. Pete Rose? Gambling. When we talk about Plaxico Burress…wait, do people actually talk about Plaxico Burress?…whatever…we talk about an idiot that shot himself.

What I’m saying is that in most cases, when a pro athlete has become involved in, or sometimes even just accused of, something criminal (or in the case of Rose, something millions and millions of people do legally every day in Vegas), they become tied to that incident. Not quite synonymous, but it’s definitely part of their story that’s frequently brought up. We don’t we do that with Lewis though. Seems kind of like a double standard, doesn’t it? Because of his positive affect on the Ravens franchise, the city of Baltimore and the game of football, I think the media and fans have given him a pass on bringing it up when discussing him. They give him a Ray-Ray. That’s right, I just coined a new term. Give it time, you’ll hear it in real life.

“But daaaad, Jake’s curfew was 11 when he was 16, why is mine 10? Why are you pulling a Ray-Ray?”

I’ll leave you with this Ray Lewis video. To be honest, the whole reason I wrote this post was just so I could link to this video. Enjoy. And you’re welcome. Instant classic.

Ray Lewis’ Ray of Light by TV Funhouse (sorry I didn’t embed the video…we encountered some technical difficulties with it)

 

By Kevin York
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kevin_york
You can contact Kevin at kevin@thecouchletes.com

Thoughts on the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs

We’re now down to the last four teams in the NFL playoffs. Baltimore, San Francisco, Atlanta and New England. It was an entertaining weekend of games. The Ravens-Broncos overtime thriller was an instant classic and a game that Denver fans, and Peyton Manning, will likely want to forget quickly. The Broncos, huge favorites, really blew that game. Green Bay-San Francisco was close, at least until the fourth quarter, but nonetheless a much more competitive game than their first encounter in week one. This game didn’t turn out at all the way I wanted and I now have to live with it. I may never write another Packers preview as a result. Seattle-Atlanta looked like it would be a rout early, but the Seahawks, as they’ve done all season, refused to give up and made it quite an ending, though they ultimately blew their chance to steal a win. That game may have ended even more exciting than the Baltimore-Denver game. And finally, New England showed how strong, and deep, they really are by winning a game with Houston that never really appeared competitive after the Pats scored their first touchdown.

We’ll have previews of the AFC and NFC Championship games later this week, but here are my initial thoughts after watching the four playoff games this weekend:

— Peyton Manning could be the best regular season quarterback ever, but man, that guy has a tendency to come up short in the playoffs. It just feels like a really high number of times that he’s been the higher seed and lost. He’s such a good player and an all around good guy that I feel sorry for him.

— Speaking of him being a good guy, I appreciated hearing that Manning waited around for an hour and a half after the game to privately congratulate Ray Lewis. That’s a class act.

— The Ray Lewis story is having quite the final chapter. I can’t believe how much he’s inspired this Ravens team. It sounds ridiculous, but his presence on the field does wonders for improving Baltimore’s chances of winning a game.

— Enough criticism of Joe Flacco. He’s shown over the past two post seasons that he really is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. I’d take him in a playoff game. Last year he outplayed Tom Brady, this year he outplayed Peyton Manning. You can’t ask for much more than that.

— Baltimore still has a good defense. They don’t quite have the same pass rush they’ve had in the past, with Paul Kruger being the only really consistent pass rushing threat, but it’s still a solid unit. They may not have ranked that way this year, but remember, they had a ton of injuries and those injuries were to main contributors (Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed). Everyone’s healthy now.

— The San Francisco 49er offense may have become the team’s strong suit. With the difficult to defend new read option dimension that Colin Kaepernick has added, I really think this might the case. While the defense is still solid, I don’t feel like they shut down the Packers defense as much as they did in their week one meeting. In fact, the Pack did more to shoot themselves in the foot. Their turnovers were more a result of their own mistakes than any forcing the San Francisco defense did. And it was the Niner offense that capitalized on those Green Bay mistakes.

— Frank Gore quietly continues to be a huge contributor to the 49ers offense. He’s not the most vocal or showy player, so doesn’t command the same mainstream media attention as others on their offense, but he is the rock of that unit. Would you be surprised to know he gained 119 rushing yards against the Packers? I watched the entire game and was surprised by it. He quietly just gets his job done.

— Michael Crabtree has emerged as a top receiver in the game. Going into that game, Green Bay knew that he was one of Kaepernick’s go to guys, and they still couldn’t defend him, knowing it was coming.

— Green Bay didn’t appear to have much of a competitive game plan on either side of the ball. They apparently didn’t read my analysis post from last week because they didn’t appear prepared for many of things I called out. They ran very few screen passes (and I don’t remember any outside screens) on offense and on defense, they didn’t look prepared for Kaepernick’s outside running, which is especially odd since they put together a game plan exactly a week ago to shut down Adrian Peterson’s outside running (and were effective).

— I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new defensive coordinator in Green Bay next year. Dom Capers’ unit has not performed well for the second season in a row now. It’s the achilles heel of an otherwise pretty good team. Sure, personnel is some of it, but I think scheme is part of it too.

— Seattle had quite the year, but came up just short. That’s still a great team and one that I think over the next couple years will become the team to beat in the NFC West. They’re younger than San Francisco and won’t face some of the free agent questions that the Niners will in the offseason.

— Good for Matt Ryan. He’s a good guy and it’s nice to see him get this playoff monkey off his back. Same with Falcons head coach Mike Smith and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Those are three of the classiest guys in the league.

— Pete Carroll’s got to be wishing he had not taken the time out to try and ice Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant at the end of the game. Bryant ended up missing the attempt (which then didn’t count) and Carroll proceeded to complain to the officials about being awarded the time out. Not sure what you were complaining about Pete. FOX clearly had you on tape calling the timeout.

— The Georgia Dome is LOUD.

— Most people think the Packers (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jermichael Finley) or Patriots (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, Julian Edelman, Danny Woodhead, and now Shane Vereen) have the best group of receivers in the league. Top to bottom, they probably do, but does anyone have a better 1-2-3 combination than the Falcons have in Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez? Throw in Harry Douglas and that’s a pretty good receiving corps. They’re vastly underrated.

— San Francisco should have a more difficult time preparing for Atlanta’s offense than they did preparing for Green Bay’s last week. In the passing game they’re similar, but Atlanta has the running game that Green Bay doesn’t with the combination of Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers (as long as they don’t forget about it, which for some unknown reason they’re prone to do at times…).

— New England is the deepest team in the league. They’ve faced quite a few injuries to key contributors this year, yet their play doesn’t drop off. Danny Woodhead gets hurt on his first play of the game and New England turns to Shane Vereen to fill Woodhead’s role. He looked awesome and we’re now left wondering, where was this guy all year?

— New England’s running game has really developed this season. Ridley and Vereen looked good against a Houston defense that was supposed to be one of the best in the league.

— Speaking of Houston’s defense, what happened to them? They looked horrible. They couldn’t stop New England at all.

— Tom Brady now has the most playoff wins of any quarterback in NFL history as he surpassed Joe Montana on Sunday. In the Brady-Montana debate about who’s the best quarterback ever, I think Brady keeps doing his part to provide us with a definitive answer. The guy’s money and the case is closed in my book.

NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round: The Couchletes Pick ‘Em

With only one “surprise” last week, we saw our picks net out in a tie between Kevin and Ryan with four correctly picked games. The lone surprise wasn’t really a surprise at all with Seattle trekking East to Washington as a Wild Card and soundly defeating the NFC East division champion Redskins 24-14 in a game that brought with it a devastating knee injury to Skins quarterback Robert Griffin III. It seems everyone except the Redskins saw that coming and it’s a shame, really, that such a talented guy has to end a great rookie campaign like that, but that’s football.

The divisional round of the playoffs brings arguably the most exciting games of the year. The matchups are strong, the best quarterbacks are still in it (Brady, Manning, and Rodgers) and we feel we’re in for some surprises, especially with the hottest team in football, the Seattle Seahawks, taking their talents to Atlanta in a showdown between two potent offenses and one outstanding defense that matches up better with Atlanta’s offensive threats than any team left in the tournament.

Game on!

Match-up Kevin Ryan Rahul Hoa Mark
@DEN vs. BAL DEN DEN DEN DEN
@SF vs. GB GB GB SF SF
@ATL vs. SEA SEA SEA ATL ATL
@NE vs. HOU NE NE HOU NE